Man, do I have a bitchin' cash flow spreadsheet. It's got suspense, romance, and sex. Actually it has some pretty cool stuff to really nail down the accuracy of the flow. It automagically calculates when cans, lids, and six pack carriers need to be reordered and adds them to the outgoing cash for the month. Because these are not insignificant cash outflows, I felt it was important to model them as accurately as possible.
Here's a fun thing I did: When I calculated the revenue from keg sales, I was multiplying the price/keg by the number of barrels I was kegging, not the number of kegs! That meant I was modeling keg sales at half of what they would be. I couldn't find the problem at first and I was going absolutely apeshit. I had visions of this entire enterprise falling off a cliff. I couldn't ever get to positive cash flow unless I charged a ridiculous amount of money for kegs. I took a break for a couple of days feeling quite frustrated. Today, I found the error immediately! Wow, amazing how much revenue projections increased. Lesson learned: don't do stupid shit.
Quick tip: don't forget CO2 costs! If you plan on force carbonating in the bright tank, and most breweries will, CO2 costs can be quite significant. My numbers come from Metropolitan, but you'll wanna check with your local breweries to see what their costs are. Simply divide the annual or monthly cost by the appropriate number of barrels it was used on and you got your $/bbl for CO2.
I'll be going back many times and tweaking and error checking, but a big piece of this puzzle has just fallen into place.