As I mentioned last week, I'll be doing short and sweet blog posts just to let everyone know I'm still alive and moving along. I spent a lot of time this week tweaking my cash flow and profit and loss spreadsheets and completed the break even analysis spreadsheet. At this point, I'm pretty confident in my models for costing out everything and cash flow. I added some logic to account for buying an additional fermenter when production reaches a certain level as well. Utilities were broken down more accurately to allocate the lions share to cost of goods sold based on production volume. I'm really pleased with how far along all of this analysis has come.
I also created a quick timeline spreadsheet which back calculates when major milestones need to be completed based on an opening date. These milestones include TTB Brewer's Notice, equipment ordering, lease signing, etc. My current model says that the brewery will open 10 months from the day the business plan is completed. Of course parts of the timeline are complete guesswork so who knows? It could be 14 months, 16 months. Depends on a lot of factors.
This week I received an updated quote from Premier Stainless for a 15 bbl brew house with 30 bbl fermenters instead of 20/40 bbl. The price difference is about $40,000. That's a small amount of money for what would be a 33% increase in production capacity, but I'd rather start up with a smaller loan (and loan payment) and be able to launch with a canning line. The canning line will significantly lower packaging costs and I'm dead set on that path. As I've mentioned a few times before, I'll have a very detailed post discussing canning costs when time allows.
All of this was completed while also preparing for the final push of finishing my giganto container vegetable garden project and finalizing the fill date for my group Templeton Rye barrel project with English barley wine. I need 35 hours in a day. Working on very little sleep.
The next steps are to complete the opening balance sheet, which won't take long and then move to the written portions of the business plan. My goal at this point is to have the entire business plan completed and off for review with a select few friends (including an MBA or two) by end of June.